Lakes and adjacent wetland networks provide essential benefits for flood protection, but climate change and rapid urbanisation increasingly strain these ecosystems and their services. Traditional approaches to planning and management primarily rely on subjective, qualitative assessments of ecosystems, neglecting the relationship between supply and demand. However, accurately quantifying and mapping the benefits that can be delivered to people is important for supporting their health and well-being. This study presents a framework for high-resolution mapping of lake ecosystem services (ES) for flood regulation and coastal protection across two urban lake basins in Lithuania. A framework is proposed, and a geographic information system (GIS)-based analysis is utilised to prepare, process, and integrate geospatial data layers representing biophysical characteristics at 10-meter resolution within a 5-km buffer around the lakes. To model flood-regulation supply and demand, 13 variables representing soil, land, population, and built-area characteristics were used. Using Spearman's rank correlation, redundant variables were identified and removed. After reclassification, a weighted-sum function in ArcGIS Pro was used to combine the variables and create supply and demand models. Correlation analysis further identified the indicators that contributed most to each model. Finally, a surplus/deficit map was created by subtracting demand from supply using the Raster Calculator tool. Results revealed a spatial concentration of deficit areas in the northern part of Lake Mastis. This study provides municipalities with a powerful analytical tool for evidence-based planning decisions to safeguard vulnerable communities.
Dubey, D., & Dutta, V. (2020). Nutrient Enrichment in Lake Ecosystem and Its Effects on Algae and Macrophytes. In V. Shukla & N. Kumar (Eds.), Environmental Concerns and Sustainable Development: Volume 2: Biodiversity, Soil and Waste Management (pp. 81–126). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-6358-0_5
Inácio, M., Barceló, D., Zhao, W., & Pereira, P. (2022). Mapping lake ecosystem services: A systematic review. Science of The Total Environment, 847, 157561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157561
Montenegro-Díaz, P., Crespo, P., Jaramillo, F., & Ochoa-Sánchez, A. (2025). Water-related ecosystem services of lakes worldwide: A comprehensive meta-analysis. Environmental Research Communications, 7(11), 112003. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae1d28
Pereira, P., Kalinauskas, M., Das, M., Bogdzevič, K., Inácio, M., & Barcelo, D. (2022). Chapter Six—Mapping and assessment of flood regulation supply and demand in Vilnius (Lithuania). In P. Pereira & C. S. S. Ferreira (Eds.), Urban Soil and Water Degradation (Vol. 8, pp. 113–133). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.apmp.2022.10.015
Pereira, P., Kalinauskas, M., Pinto, L. V., Barcelo, D., Zhao, W., & Inacio, M. (2024). A simple method for mapping winter recreational fishing ecosystem services supply in lakes. A contribution to mapping freshwater ecosystem services. MethodsX, 12, 102764. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2024.102764
Sidemo-Holm, W., & Kristensen, J. A. (2025). A framework to identify and value ecosystem services and disservices with supply and demand. Environmental Challenges, 20, 101306. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2025.101306
Sterner, R. W., Keeler, B., Polasky, S., Poudel, R., Rhude, K., & Rogers, M. (2020). Ecosystem services of Earth’s largest freshwater lakes. Ecosystem Services, 41, 101046. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.101046
Syrbe, R.-U., & Grunewald, K. (2017). Ecosystem service supply and demand – the challenge to balance spatial mismatches. International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services & Management, 13(2), 148–161. https://doi.org/10.1080/21513732.2017.1407362
Tian, S., Wu, W., Chen, S., Li, Z., & Li, K. (2025). Global mismatch between ecosystem service supply and demand driven by climate change and human activity. Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 26, 100573. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ese.2025.100573
Xia, P., Peng, J., Gu, T., Yu, S., & Xu, Z. (2025). Lake-related ecosystem services facing social–ecological risks. People and Nature, 7(4), 734–751. https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.70015
Yang, M., Wang, M., Cao, L., & Zhang, H. (2025). Integrating trade-offs and supply-demand into ecosystem service zoning management to provide more targeted management strategies from the water-food-ecosystem nexus perspective. Scientific Reports, 15(1), 33957. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-11536-3