Satellite-Based Monitoring of Land Cover Transformation After the Kakhovka Dam Collapse (2022–2025)

In June 2023, the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant led to significant changes in southern Ukraine. The study examined changes in vegetation and water balance in the area of the former Kakhovka Reservoir. For this purpose, satellite monitoring was carried out using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to assess vegetation cover and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) to assess surface water. The analysis was based on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery for two periods: before the disaster (June 6, 2022 – June 5, 2023) and after the disaster (June 6, 2023 – June 6, 2025). The methodology included assessing changes at a single control point, which was later expanded to five spatially distributed points and a regional land cover classification. The main results show abrupt changes. According to data from a single control point, NDVI values increased from –0.0156 to 0.3421, indicating vegetation growth on the exposed bottom of the reservoir. At the same time, NDWI decreased from 0.0481 to –0.3535, confirming a significant loss of water. The overall land cover classification revealed that the surface water area decreased from over 18,000 ha to approximately 3,000 ha, while the area of bare soil increased by more than 50,000 ha. These results indicate the transformation of the former reservoir into a terrestrial environment. The conclusions of the study can be used to assess environmental impacts and to plan further land use, taking into account environmental assessments and safety considerations.