This study develops and tests a GIS-based methodology for modeling the distribution of microelements in surface waters using the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN) interpolation method. The approach was applied to historical hydro-lithochemical survey data from the Poltava Region (Ukraine) to spatially interpolate barium (Ba) concentrations and identify zones exceeding established critical thresholds. The methodology integrates stages of data preparation, geocoding, interpolation, classification, and spatial analysis, followed by quantitative assessment of contaminated areas.
Barium was selected as the primary indicator due to its high sensitivity to anthropogenic impacts and the completeness of available datasets for two survey periods (1985–1988 and 1991–1993). Statistical analysis revealed a lognormal distribution of Ba concentrations, justifying the choice of the TIN method for preserving local spatial variability. Interpolated surfaces were clipped to administrative boundaries, and exceedance zones were extracted as vector layers for area calculations using geodetic parameters of the WGS84 ellipsoid.
The results demonstrated a significant increase in the exceedance area from 2,408.62 km² (4.24% of the region) in 1985–1988 to 21,354.60 km² (37.55%) in 1991–1993. These findings indicate a substantial expansion of contamination zones over time, highlighting the influence of anthropogenic activities and environmental changes.
The developed methodology is adaptable to various regions and chemical components, providing a reliable framework for environmental monitoring and risk assessment. It can be applied to contemporary datasets for rapid evaluation and long-term observation of surface water quality, supporting decision-making in environmental management and conservation planning.
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